Vandaag vrijdag 19 maart:
Geen economisch nieuws vandaag, dus de aanloop kan redelijk rustig verlopen. Wel blijft het Al Qaeda nieuws spelen uiteraard.
Vandaag is het "quadruple witching" expiratie op Wall Street met het aflopen van de index future contracten en opties. Dit kan tot extra volatiliteit leiden met extra omzetten.
Close Dow -4.52 at 10,295.78, Nasdaq -14.32 at 1,962.44, S&P -1.44 at 1,122.31: It was an international day...there was a fair amount of news, but it was all overshadowed by developments in Pakistan...there, Pakistani officials say their troops have surrounded the number two leader in al Qaeda...when word of this hit the markets, the indices recovered significantly off their lows, and the Dow and S&P ended with only small losses...the markets opened down as international markets were mostly lower, and word out of Europe was that Microsoft (MSFT 24.91 -0.22) and the European Union were unable to reach on deal on anti-trust issues, and that Microsoft now faces fines...the price of oil eased on international markets, but remains at high levels, and coupled with the report that the delayed January PPI rose a strong 0.6%, brought back some talk of inflationary pressures...the other economic news was mixed...new claims fell to their lowest level in over three years, but the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey was a bit weaker than expected...Morgan Stanley (MWD 59.91 -0.55) dropped despite a stellar earnings report, and United Technologies (UTX 87.83 -0.97) reaffirmed guidance for 2004...decliners led advancers by a fair amount overall, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (RUT 574.51 -4.06) small cap index were lower on the day...volume was very light...developments in Pakistan are likely to set the tone tomorrow, which is a quadruple options expiration day... NYSE Adv/Dec 1487/1788... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1231/1881.
- 18:32 ET After Hours Summary : Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to news: Trading Up: ADBE +7.3% (earnings report), CHTT +3.0% (earnings report), IDXX +2.8% (USDA approval of BSE postmortem test), TEK +2.1% (earnings report), MEDI +1.8% (Business Week article).... Trading Down: COMS -1.6% (earnings report), WTSLA -2.9% (earnings report), RSTO -3.7% (earnings report), SLR -8.3% (earnings report), LSCC -9.4% (delays earnings release due to audit), PSRC -13.1% (earnings report).
- 18:06 ET SEMI Book-to-Bill : Semi equipment industry book-to-bill ratio fell to
1.14 in February versus Moors and Cabot's estimate of 1.19 (front end 1.22 and back end was 1.07). Bookings of 1.31 bln came in 6.4% above January's level of $1.18 bln and 71.6% above the $760 mln in orders posted in the same time a year ago. - Adobe Systems (ADBE) +7%: Software company beats the Reuters Research consensus EPS estimate by $0.10 in its Q1 (Feb) report; Guides Q2 (May) roughly in line and FY04 (Nov) above Street forecasts; Briefing.com said in ADBE's Earnings Preview on In-Play that JP Morgan, for one, expected a 'very strong Q1' and noted that the 'bias of the stock should be to the upside'
- Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) -10%: Chip maker delays reporting its Q4 (Dec) results for a second time as it works on a review of its deferred-income accounting; Company has said it expects to restate results for the first three quarters of 2003, which will lower year-to-date revenue by $10-11 mln and increase its yea r-to-date net loss by a range of $8.5-9.5 mln
- Nike (NKE) -1%: Athletic footwear maker delivers a solid Q3 (Feb) report in which net income spikes 57% to $0.74 (consensus of $0.73) and revenues jump 21% to $2.90 bln (consensus of $2.89 bln); Stock sells off after rallying 3% in response to its upside preannouncement on March 9; See a Story Stock from that day for more information
- 15:27 ET Treasuries close near lows on terror news : This morning's economic data was unable to spark significant interest in treasuries, and the market remained range-bound for most of the session. The FOMC minutes offered little insight, but talk of speeding up the minutes' release in the future was taken as positive news. News came out mid-day that bin Laden's number two man, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, was cornered in a 15 square mile area on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border along with 200 of his thugs. Treasuries immediately sold off to their lows of the day and traded on the low end into the close. Pakistani President Musharraf is scheduled to speak to a worldwide audience this evening in regards to today's activities. With no economic releases scheduled for tomorrow, the market will be focusing on the conclusion or continuation of the drama and Musharraf's comments. The market continues to consider the 3.68% area a key level, which if taken out decisively will lead to a significant rally. The 10-year is currently -10/32nds; yielding 3.747%, 2-year is currently -01/32nds; yielding 1.510%, 5-year is currently -06/32; yielding 2.709%, 30-year is currently -15/32nds; yielding 4.694%.
- 14:28 ET FOMC minutes highlight language and release timing : The minutes of the January FOMC meeting have been released and reflect a mixed tone among policy makers. While the switch to 'patient in removing its policy accommodation' from the Dec statement that 'policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period' added flexibility, some members noted the need to take up economic slack as others wanted to stop referring to the balance of risks altogether. There is continued talk of trimming lag in minutes release.
- 14:01 ET Follow-up on reports of Pakistani operations against al-Qaeda : Sky News reports that Osama bin Laden's second in command Ayman al-Zawahri has been surrounded in Pakistan, however the identity of the man has not been confirmed. In an interview with CNN, Pakistani President Musharraf said: "(Judging by) the resistance that is being offered by the people there, we feel that there may be a high value target." According to CNN's website, the Associated Press and Reuters reported that officials believe it may be al-Zawahri, but we have seen conflicting reports on this coming across the wires in the past hour, with one saying al-Zawahri actually surrendered to Pakistani forces, but most saying he is surrounded.
- 13:41 ET Floor Talk : March Madness has begun both on CBS and on most trading floors as institutional traders place their bets going into the tournament. Most desks report back that flows are quiet (except for past 45 min) as post-earnings-season vacations dwindle numbers and lack of strong conviction in either direction leaves many accounts on the sidelines. One area of debate we're hearing today is with respect to Semis, and whether the cycle is more important than valuations. As illustrated by the clashing Advanced Micro calls today by Morgan Stanley and SG Cowen, analysts are also split on the subject. Among the few bright spots in the market today are Gold (XAU +2.6%) and Oil Services (+0.8%). We've been hearing increasing concern that the market has taken rising oil prices for granted, and this could be an issue that soon moves to the forefront. One desk also highlights the breakdown in tech safe-haven Microsoft today (hit new 4-month low, see 09:39 comment) as a concern that rest of market may be in store for further downside.
- 12:54 ET Hearing of institutional buying of S&P contracts on the al Qaeda news :
- 10:09 ET Dollar slipping after French railways says Eurostar trains suspended -- Reuters :
- 09:06 ET Gold Oil and Dollar Summary : The
Gold (407.50) regains some strength as it takes on its 'safe-haven' role against security concerns and strong Yen/Dollar moves. Gold had slid to a 3 ½ month low of 387.60 earlier this month. Technical analysts are watching the 408 area for resistance... 08:48 ET ASML sees strong order bookings in Q2, Q4 -- Reuters :- 07:11 ET WSJ article suggests recent move in semi stocks might provide chance to "lighten up" : The WSJ's column "Ahead of the Tape" discusses semiconductor sector that peaked out in mid-Jan. and has been slipping since. The article notes that in the past two days, investors have been getting into the sector. The thinking is that anything down must be a bargain. However, the article suggests the recent move could be providing a chance to lighten up. No one wants to believe that the cycle has maxed out. According to the article, the time to sell semis is when all the co's are reporting good news, when margins are high and when you can't swing a mouse without hitting a bullish analyst. National Semiconductor had a strong earnings report and outlook last week, Texas Instruments had an upbeat forecast, but the stocks didn't respond well. This raises some speculation that investors are anticipating some difficulty ahead. Moreover, there have been pockets of mediocre news. Agere, a maker of communications chips, warned that its current quarterly earnings would disappoint.
- 06:42 ET MSFT: A proposal considering fines will be on table next Wednesday -- EU's Monti :
- 06:40 ET MICROSOFT AND EU FAIL TO REACH AGREEMENT IN SETTLEMENT TALKS :
Guy Boscart