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De Dow Jones test de 10K grens, Nasdaq op 200-MA

23 maart 2004, 08:49 | US Markets Redactie | leestijd: 8 minuten | moeilijkheid: 11 / 12 | (0)

Dreiging door terreur en de situatie in Taiwan samen met enkele technische verkoopsignalen zetten de markten zwaar onder druk. De beurs kan verder dalen over het geheel gezien er technisch veel is verzwakt, toch verwacht ik eerst nog een poging door de Bulls de markt weer op te laten veren....

Vandaag komen er geen economische cijfers op Wall Street, wel enkele bedrijfsresultaten waarvan Goldman Sachs (GS) de belangrijkste is. Het bedrijf komt met zijn Q1 (Feb) resultaten waarvan de verwachtingen zeer hoog zijn. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, en Morgan Stanley's hun cijfers vorige week waren sterk.

Close Dow -121.85 at 10,064.75, Nasdaq -30.56 at 1,909.91, S&P -14.30 at 1,095.44: The market received no respite from the selling efforts that have characterized much of the trade over the past month and closed the session with the major averages down 1.1-1.6%... The negative bias resulted from the market's apprehensive stance in view of heightened terrorism and geopolitical concerns... To that effect, the killing of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in a Gaza City airstrike brought attention to the conflict in the Middle East, where Palestinian terrorist organizations vowed to revenge... Separately, political unrest surrounding the presidential election in Taiwan also pressured the markets worldwide... There were no economic reports to provide support to the market and corporate developments were limited... Accordingly, the bulk of the sectors spent the entirety of the session in the red, showing losses of more than 1%... Laggards of note included the influential hardware, internet, networking, semiconductor, software, telecom, biotech, banking, broker/dealer, oil services, transportation, utility, and insurance sectors... There were no leaders to the upside after the gold group, which had spent much of the session in the green due to its increased safe-haven appeal, slipped into the red... Elsewhere, the bond market rallied due to heightened terrorism concerns, with the 10-year note closing up 15/32, bringing its yield down to 3.71%... Despite the recent pullbacks, we think long-term investors should maintain exposure to stocks, which continue to be supported by historically low interest rates, although a conservative approach is prudent given the market's tendency to emphasize the negatives of late... Please NYSE Adv/Dec 752/2548... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 668/2543.

  • 18:10 ET Monday After Hours : prices levels vs. 4 pm ET: The bears still dominate the action after today's dreary session which saw the Dow come close to falling below the 10,000 mark. Presently, the S&P futures, at 1093, are 1 point below fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1381, are 3 points below fair value. Tonight's earnings pronouncements have come from a smattering of companies, and have not been particularly successful in changing the mood of trading.
  • Alkermes (ALKS) +6%: Emerging biotech company presents positive Phase I results for its AIR® Epinephrine (inhaled formulation of epinephrine) product; Said it demonstrated rapid systemic delivery in normal volunteers, and also confirmed the safety profile; WR Hambrecht recently initiated coverage of ALKS with a Buy rating and $26.10 price target
  • 15:19 ET Treasuries close near highs on terror woes : Treasuries remain compressed today, trapping the 10-year yield in a less than 0.04 basis point range as terror concerns continue to depress yields below 3.75%. Range-bound trading should continue throughout tomorrow's session as traders look to size up Wednesday's 2-year auction in search of sustained foreign central bank purchases. Market moving economic releases are not on the calendar until Wednesday's durable goods and housing data, causing some overreaction to geopolitical issues that don't have enormous bearing on the overall state of the US economy. The comments from Chicago Fed's Moskow were generally benign, but tomorrow offers more Fed-speak as well as Treasury's Snow and Abernathy, with Snow always capable of lending some spark to the action. The 10-year is currently +14/32nds; yielding 3.718%, 2-year is currently +01/32nds; yielding 1.485%, 5-year is currently +08/32nds; yielding 2.676%, 30-year is currently +18/32nds; yielding 4.670%.

  • 15:08 ET MSFT: Market responds favorably to EU news, stock lifts to highs of day : 24.78 +0.15: Microsoft (MSFT) shares have lifted approx. $0.70 since reports that the EU will fine co EUR497 mln on Wednesday (see 14:35 comment). The size of the fine is seen by many as much less than expected, given some estimates that the fine could potentially run into the billions.

  • 14:54 ET Al-Qaeda reportedly vows revenge on U.S. over Yassin's death - Reuters :

  • 14:21 ET Market weighed down by terrorism concerns : Geopolitical events have decisively retaken center stage today, as various headlines over the weekend have roiled stock markets around the world. After Israel assassinated Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin, Hamas and various Palestinian groups vowed revenge on Israel, and for the first time threatened the U.S., saying that America's backing of Israel made the assassination possible. According to an MSNBC report, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Alaron Trading, said "The threats for revenge from Hamas have the markets on edge. We've seen a flight to quality in the bonds," he added, noting that "this latest incident regarding Hamas will increase the risk of the terror premium in the markets." In addition, traders have even less inclination to buy following various news reports that al-Qaeda may have bought a suitcase-sized nuclear weapon in Central Asia, and that al-Qaeda's al-Zawahiri may have escaped in a secret tunnel from Pakistani troops. To top it all off, China engaged in some of its usual sabre-rattling following Taiwan's elections, and Afghanistan's Aviation Minister was assassinated in Herat, which led to some of the heaviest fighting between two rival warlords in that country since the Taliban were ousted.

  • 09:10 ET Gold Oil and Dollar Summary : The Dollar is weaker versus the Euro (1.2340) this morning as geo-political unrest and security issues make their way to the forefront of traders' minds. The European Union showed a widening of its trade surplus, suggesting the Euro's 20% increase over the last year has not led to a collapse in the region's exports. The Yen is also lower today near 107.04 against the Dollar. Disputes over Taiwan's presidential election along with Asian tech stocks staging a broad decline are cited for the Yen's weakness today. The Swiss Franc (considered a safe-haven currency) is up slightly... Safe-haven Gold (416.25) is trading higher on signs of a weaker dollar, but Silver (7.65) takes the spotlight as it trades near its 1998 high of 7.90...Oil (38.05) is stronger from its Friday close as it nears its monthly highs of 38.35. OPEC has been sending mixed signals as to whether it will delay or implement its planned supply cut at its March 31 meeting. For now, geo-political turmoil in the Middle East and Venezuela along with looming terror threats continue to keep oil prices high.

  • 08:33 ET Top al-Qaida terrorists may have escaped Pakistani soldiers using secret tunnels -- MSNBC : MSBNC reports that top al-Qaida terrorists may have escaped a siege by thousands of Pakistani soldiers using several secret tunnels leading from mud fortresses to a dry mountain stream near the border with Afghanistan, a security chief said Monday. Three senior officials have told AP that they believe al-Qaida No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri may have been at the site, though the government has repeatedly said it does not know who is inside.

  • 07:22 ET China puts army on combat alert over Taiwan crisis : Reuters reports that China has ordered its army on combat alert, ready to strike Taiwan if the island's election dispute intensifies, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post said on Monday. Chinese President Hu Jintao could cite the newly revised state constitution to declare a state of emergency over Taiwan, paving the way for a military attack, the paper quoted unidentified sources on the mainland as saying. Beijing has ordered government departments in the capital and the coastal provinces of Fujian, Guangdong and Zhejiang to put more officials on duty, it said. In a military operation, these provinces would serve as bases for missile attacks. But analysts said there were no signs an attack was imminent, the paper said.

Guy Boscart,


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